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Prediction for CME (2022-03-02T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-02T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19327/-1
CME Note: The CME is associated with the M2.0 class from Active Region 12958 (N18E27) peaking at 2022-03-02T17:39Z and the eruption marked by an EUV wave and seen in EUVI A 195 and AIA 193 after 2022-03-02T17:45Z. UPDATE (2022-03-09T17:45Z): There is no conclusive arrival signature for this ICME. The L1 solar wind signature is dominated by the 2022-03-05 high speed stream.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-06T12:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-03-03T06:01Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 270
Longitude (deg): E039
Latitude (deg): N05
Half-angular width (deg): 29

Notes: Associated with M2.0 flare from AR2958. Clear in Lasco especially, but many frames in STEREO A COR2. Mainly directed east of sun-Earth line, deterministic (most favoured) solution a very faint glance 06/1200UTC but with a significant number of MOSWOC Enlil ensemble members carrying some form of glancing blow on or after 06/1200UTC. Acknowledge that obs Type II speed and analysis do not match, but perhaps harmonic of Type II analysed.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence on behalf of Ian Jameson

Lead Time: 70.67 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-03-03T13:20Z

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